There has been a lot of mainstream media coverage of Charlie Sheen and his Godess-enhanced clan lately (#winning). What has not gotten nearly as much attention is something that matters more: increased earthquake activity. In Epik’s 2011 Outlook, we said to expect increased seismic activity in 2011 (see prediction #6). The last 24 hours has seen some of the most active seismic activity in recent history. This post provides the uninitiated with a short primer on where to look and what to look for since there is a risk to be managed — including risks for internet entrepreneurs.
Increasing Seismic Activity is a Development to Watch
As measured by earthquakes of 6.0 or higher on the Richter scale, seismic activity has been on the rise. As you can see in the chart below, a meaningful change in the trend started in the early-1990’s. The uptick is not attributable to improvements in measurement as people do tend to notice the 6-bangers when they happen. For calibration, the recent massive New Zealand earthquake was a 7.0 as was the Haiti quake in 2010 that has killed more than 300,000 people.
Today’s Seismic Activity was unusually active
In a normal year, we would have about 120 earthquakes of 6.0 or higher on the Richter scale. That means about 1 ever 3 days. So far today, we have had 2 earthquakes of 6.0 or higher. We have had 21 that are 4.5 or higher. On the Monday clock, which started a short while ago, we just had a 6.6 in the Solomon Islands — so that makes 3 quakes of 6.0 or higher in less than 24 hours. Statistically, that is starting to look mighty peculiar.
| MAG | UTC DATE-TIME y/m/d h:m:s |
LAT deg |
LON deg |
DEPTH km |
Region | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAP | 5.4 | 2011/03/06 23:45:00 | -30.983 | -178.691 | 101.7 | KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND |
| MAP | 4.9 | 2011/03/06 22:23:16 | 44.334 | -129.473 | 10.2 | OFF THE COAST OF OREGON |
| MAP | 4.8 | 2011/03/06 21:35:48 | 44.372 | -129.346 | 10.9 | OFF THE COAST OF OREGON |
| MAP | 2.6 | 2011/03/06 21:15:00 | 19.407 | -155.284 | 1.3 | ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII |
| MAP | 4.6 | 2011/03/06 20:50:33 | 73.061 | 5.998 | 34.8 | GREENLAND SEA |
| MAP | 2.7 | 2011/03/06 20:01:17 | 60.162 | -152.481 | 84.7 | SOUTHERN ALASKA |
| MAP | 4.9 | 2011/03/06 15:48:54 | 52.180 | 142.177 | 10.0 | SAKHALIN, RUSSIA |
| MAP | 6.5 | 2011/03/06 14:32:36 | -56.387 | -27.019 | 84.2 | SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION |
| MAP | 2.8 | 2011/03/06 14:21:28 | 19.412 | -155.261 | 3.0 | ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII |
| MAP | 4.5 | 2011/03/06 13:46:35 | 40.455 | -125.427 | 2.6 | OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA |
| MAP | 2.6 | 2011/03/06 13:40:26 | 32.412 | -115.498 | 16.6 | BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO |
| MAP | 4.8 | 2011/03/06 13:35:16 | 52.847 | 160.698 | 44.7 | OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA |
| MAP | 4.9 | 2011/03/06 13:09:34 | 52.882 | 160.605 | 49.9 | OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA |
| MAP | 6.2 | 2011/03/06 12:31:58 | -18.115 | -69.391 | 101.3 | TARAPACA, CHILE |
| MAP | 4.7 | 2011/03/06 11:26:26 | 26.909 | 143.598 | 10.0 | BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION |
| MAP | 4.7 | 2011/03/06 11:06:27 | 26.903 | 143.632 | 10.1 | BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION |
| MAP | 4.3 | 2011/03/06 10:57:30 | 36.447 | 71.193 | 232.8 | HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN |
| MAP | 5.0 | 2011/03/06 10:52:52 | 26.897 | 143.610 | 10.1 | BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION |
| MAP | 2.6 | 2011/03/06 10:44:19 | 59.472 | -153.632 | 100.0 | SOUTHERN ALASKA |
| MAP | 4.5 | 2011/03/06 10:11:36 | -9.389 | 119.210 | 85.9 | SUMBA REGION, INDONESIA |
| MAP | 4.2 | 2011/03/06 09:45:22 | 14.021 | -91.299 | 80.5 | GUATEMALA |
| MAP | 2.8 | 2011/03/06 08:53:58 | 19.423 | -155.262 | 3.4 | ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII |
| MAP | 4.4 | 2011/03/06 08:39:52 | 53.742 | 159.112 | 158.2 | NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA |
| MAP | 4.3 | 2011/03/06 07:58:41 | 39.208 | 40.355 | 10.0 | EASTERN TURKEY |
| MAP | 4.9 | 2011/03/06 07:13:25 | 27.023 | 143.682 | 10.0 | BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION |
| MAP | 4.6 | 2011/03/06 05:25:48 | 70.884 | -6.278 | 10.0 | JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION |
| MAP | 4.5 | 2011/03/06 05:21:07 | -5.148 | 102.356 | 40.8 | SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA |
| MAP | 3.7 | 2011/03/06 05:17:36 | 60.925 | -150.014 | 42.9 | KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA |
| MAP | 4.8 | 2011/03/06 03:43:31 | -42.381 | 173.921 | 10.0 | SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND |
| MAP | 3.1 | 2011/03/06 03:32:32 | 32.814 | -115.620 | 20.6 | SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA |
| MAP | 4.2 | 2011/03/06 03:28:18 | 34.801 | 24.960 | 44.8 | CRETE, GREECE |
| MAP | 2.6 | 2011/03/06 02:36:11 | 62.958 | -149.387 | 73.5 | CENTRAL ALASKA |
| MAP | 5.1 | 2011/03/06 01:44:07 | -23.054 | 170.448 | 35.3 | SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS |
| MAP | 2.5 | 2011/03/06 01:39:00 | 19.360 | -155.159 | 2.6 | ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII |
| MAP | 2.6 | 2011/03/06 01:31:12 | 19.366 | -155.156 | 2.8 | ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII |
| MAP | 2.6 | 2011/03/06 01:23:42 | 19.369 | -155.157 | 4.2 | ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII |
| MAP | 2.5 | 2011/03/06 01:11:24 | 19.351 | -155.150 | 1.7 | ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII |
| MAP | 2.5 | 2011/03/06 01:07:32 | 19.368 | -155.152 | 3.3 | ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII |
| MAP | 4.7 | 2011/03/06 00:56:00 | 26.953 | 143.702 | 10.7 | BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION |
| MAP | 2.5 | 2011/03/06 00:52:58 | 19.364 | -155.145 | 3.6 | ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII |
| MAP | 4.4 | 2011/03/06 00:18:25 | 23.933 | 94.001 | 69.8 | MYANMAR |
You can track earthquake activity here.
The Earth’s Magnetosphere is your Friend
The other development to watch is the state of the earth’s Magnetosphere, as this correlates to seismic activity. Earth’s Magnetosphere is the protective layer that insulates the Earth from damaging solar wind. This is particularly a concern when the sun kicks out what are called Coronal Mass Ejections as has recently been happening, including a so-called X-class flare last month.
Sunspots are a leading indicator
Spots on the sun are a leading indicator. The next so-called Solar Maximum is scheduled to peak in 2012 so we should expect to see more solar activity through the balance of 2011 and into 2012 which likely also means more tectonic volatility as magnetic forces of the sun influence the earth’s iron core.
For calibration, the current sunspot number is 114. The number should keep rising through the current solar cycle — cycle 24 in case you are keeping track. A good place to look for sunspot account is SpaceWeather.com. I could imagine seeing as many as 250+ during the current cycle.
Online Real Estate should do just fine
Physical real estate would tend to suffer materially from increased seismic activity. It would also be a huge strain on already strained federal, state and local budgets. A lot of experts are paying close attention to the New Madrid faultline which was responsible for a massive seismic event in 1811 and has been relatively inactive until recently. Since most physical real estate is not insured against seismic damage, the economic impact of a large seismic event is significant. Investments in commercial property could be completely wiped out, particularly if they are leveraged. By contrast, online real estate would likely suffer temporary outages. Worst case, one should be able to restore data from a backup and operate from a new data center. This is yet another reason why I am way bullish about online real estate than offline real estate.
Be Prepared – back up your data remotely
Solar wind and X-class solar flares are important to watch in general, but if you are in the business of developing software it is even more important. Why? Geomagnetic storms can interfere with electrical systems as was demonstrated in 1989 — this was long before we all became heavily dependent on mobile phones and the Internet for communication. A repeat of the 1989 storm, or perhaps more severe, would be something to watch. Fortunately, it takes 3-4 days for Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the sun to get to Earth which means that internet entrepreneurs have ample time to take back up data if there is a CME coming our way.
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Shock horror the American media keeping things from the mainstream public. Let’s face it this is all about people’s ego’s be it Charlie Sheens spinning out of control again or the collective ego and people’s fear of their own mortality …everyone is going to die it’s just a matter of when and how…. so best to just to live in the moment and appreciate life and not buy into the fear that seems to be the only way people with no real power can control others.
** RWM ** And turn off the TV 😉
Nature is burping. Blame it on fracking, oil shale extraction and deep water drilling as we tamper with the planet (or Gods plan depending on what you believe, shout out to Matt Damon) in ways never tested before. A modern day Adam and Eve temptation test. We have picked the low hanging fruit and are now in a desperate race to keep the economy fueled. In race I would bet on God.
https://www.gaslandthemovie.com/
** RWM ** And I would bet on God too.
We are heading towards 2012 afterall, so it is to be expected 😉
** RWM ** I won’t speculate on the timetable, but I do watch the data, and especially the trend. Based on recent history, it is not clear if mainstream news will be first to report meaningful changes in the trend! Unfortunately, the alternative media is full of garbage which means the reader has to use a lot more judgment than in the past!
“Statistically, that is starting to look mighty peculiar.”
Indeed, something is a changing and it will do so regardless of us.
If there is a huge solar flare we will be back to living in the 1800’s again, you can forget everything Internet if that happens.
..no power no internet…simples 😉
Did I mention stock up on food & water lol 🙂
** RWM * I think the Internet infrastructure is more resilient than doomers might suggest. The guys who would tell you otherwise want to sell you the world’s biggest Faraday cage! 😉 And let’s face it, a lot of folks might want to go back to pre-Internet times and pre-globalization times. I am pretty certain that the Internet is with us for the long haul.
The Internet infrastructure is only as strong as its weakest link eg: a supply of electricity. You don’t have to be a doomer to realise that one 😉
Alot of this info is coming from Nasa, top scientists and other brainy people and not from conspiracy theorists.
17 Sep 2010
telegraph.co.uk/science/space/8009635/Solar-flares-could-paralyse-Britains-power-and-communications-Liam-Fox-says.html
“The meeting will be addressed by Avi Schnurr, a former US government adviser who said that “super-flares” occur about once every hundred years, meaning the next is overdue.
The electrical grid, computers, telephones, transportation, water supply, food production are all vulnerable to a major flare, said Mr Schnurr, who also works for the Israel Missile Defence Association, a lobby group.
“Our electrical infrastructures are so ubiquitous that an EMP or geomagnetic storm could shatter nations all over the earth, and we cannot wait for disaster to spur us to action,” he said ”
……”David Williams, acting head of the UK Space Agency, told a Commons committee that any negative impacts on technology, particularly satellites, would have “severe problems both short-term and long-term” for Britain.” …
————————
They don’t sound like they’re too ready for it over on this side of the pond 😉
food…cough…water…cough 🙂 …did i mention …
ps- Looks like that $200 a barrel scenerio is getting closer
arabianbusiness.com/oil-may-hit-200-if-unrest-spreads-saudi-socgen-385298.html
** RWM ** $200 oil is something I would plan for, yes. Hedge against the rise, or just plan to use a lot less of it. Internet and Rail are net beneficiaries of $200 oil, in my view. Commercial real estate and physical retail … not so much.
The death toll remains high for earthquakes, because cities located on fault lines keep getting more populous! See: https://www.watchtower.org/e/20051001/article_02.htm
Enjoy! 🙂
I wonder, in regards to earthquakes, if any part of the trend – especially from the earlier years – oculd be affected by the increasing worldwide deployment and sensitivity of detecting equipment?
That is, perhaps earthquakes were more prevalent earlier, but not as detectable, etc…
I know nothing of that field, but I have a tendancy to look at most graphs and wonder about hidden variables that might not be taken into account.
** RWM ** Well, you don’t need equipment to detect a 6+. That’s why I used that as a trendable metric. By the way, I was in Kobe right after the Great Hanshin quake — landed there just 2 days after the quake while the aftershocks were still rocking the city. Surreal. I can’t even imagine having that AND a mega tsunami AND a nuclear reactor going hot.
I agree with your point, and to expand it further I believe the ever-expending world population is also a constributing factor. As I type this, reports are coming in of an 8.8 off the coast of Japan, near Tokyo. This region has been populated by people for probably thousands of years, and has a long recorded history of earthquakes. In contrast, the area I live in (Christchurch New Zealand) was hit by a shallow and devistating 6.3 quake (last month) which was centered only a few miles away from the city central business district. Because of the lack of historical data on the region (it having been uninhabited until the 1800’s) there could have been many quakes in the past, but no-one around to record them.
** RWM ** Watching the news on CNN and following reports on blogs. TRAGIC. The tsunami damage is beyond description. Media coverage is now ample. However, folks could have seen this coming based on solar flare activity in the last week. That’s the truly sad part.
Timely topic, Rob. I’m just hoping this is not a trend, devastating if it is.
** RWM ** Watch the sun and magnetosphere for clues. It can take 2-3 days for the plasma of an X-flare to make it from the sun to the earth’s magnetoshere. With 2 X-flares in the past week, after 4 years without one, life on earth is a bit like playing Russian roulette with the sun.
Let me summarize, to make sure I have it right:
Sun spots are an indicator of Coronal Mass Ejections. We have about 114 sunspots, and those are set to peak in 2012 at about double. Coronal Mass Ejections damage the earth’s Magnetosphere, which is Earth’s protective layer that insulates Earth from damaging solar winds. Holes in the Magnetosphere allow magnetic forces of the sun to influence Earth’s iron core, causing tectonic volatility.
Solar winds are increasing after a period of low activity, according to the SpaceWeather.com – note the March 9th X-flare which damages the Earth’s Magnetosphere!
After last night, I had to go back and study this post, which I merely scanned the day it was posted. Now the whole thing make sense!
Good call, Rob! You have your finger on the pulse of important matters, and I linked to your post in an email to all my family and loved ones. Best wishes! 🙂
** RWM ** There are many theories on what causes quakes. The one that makes the most sense to me is the relationship between the earth’s iron core and magnetic forces from both our solar system and quite possibly beyond. When the magnetosphere is getting pounded, as happened again earlier today, it is cause for concern.
There’s supposed to be holes found in the magnetic field
Here’s a bit more about the solar storms
wn.com/2012_Solar_Storms__Leaks_Found_in_Earths_Magnetic_Field
Massive solar flare in the years 2012/2013 could throw us back 100 years
youtube.com/watch?v=WPdqr2v1rTQ
Look at it look at it look at it look at it!
Photos from the LA Times:
https://framework.latimes.com/2011/03/11/earthquake-and-tsunami-hits-japan
** RWM ** May you live in interesting times. indeed.
This is Horrendous, poor souls did’nt have a chance
@ Gazzip, thanx for the video – great! 🙂 That’s why we need Mobile DTV to our handheld devices, since it operates on a regular TV signal, and can broadcast during emergencies. Thank you. 🙂
Rob, WOW look what happen….you are right!
Concerning the pic tweeted by International Space Station astronaut Reid Wiseman on August 19th, an explanation from NASA is
Being that there are recorded 3 earthquakes over 6.0 in the last couple of days:
6.4 Chile on Augst 23rd
6.0 Napa yesterday
6.9 Peru later, yesterday
I wonder if the M-class flare is related to any of that activity?
Outside of the 3 6.0 and over, there were over 80 earthquakes in the last 7 days, 4.5 and over: /https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/
Should we be concerned if we get another X-flare? According to Daily Sun on SpaceWeather.com (thanx for link, Rob!), there is one spot in view of the earth, which
Sunspot AR2149 has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.
Taking into account the high concentration of big earthquakes in a short time, it wouldn’t come as a surprise to hear about a serious one, or the big one hit LA! I’m watching, and praying it doesn’t happen.